At present, the rate of increase of glass production capacity is quite obvious. Under the background of sharp rise of spot price, the speed of re-production of newly built production line and cold-repair production line has obviously accelerated, and the pressure on supply side has been obviously raised. Demand, although real estate investment and real estate sales growth has slowed down, but the real estate investment and sales are still in the rapid growth range, the real estate investment is expected to rise in the short term is expected to remain. In the cost end of the coal benefited from around the implementation of capacity-building policies, resulting in the reduction of market supply of coal in the second half of the coal prices will maintain a steady rebound. Overall, the price of glass futures in the second half of the year is expected to remain volatile.
First of all, cold repair production line significantly faster production. In the first half of 2016, there were 4 new glass production lines and 22.2 million additional new production capacities. 11 production lines were cold-repaired and 39.9 million heavy-capacity production lines were restored. 12 cold-repair production lines were put in place to reduce the production capacity by 41.58 million. In the spot price surge in the context of the new production line put into operation and cold repair production line significantly accelerated.
Since the end of February the domestic production value of inventories hit a high of 35.34 million weight box, with the years after the boom of real estate set off, building materials department turns price increases, glass manufacturers gradually raise prices, traders have begun to purchase a large number of manufacturers inventory Declining, the current market inventory has slipped to about 33 million weight boxes, inventory days also dropped to 15 days. However, in absolute terms, glass inventories are still higher this year than in 2013 and 2014. In addition to the pre-inventory decline in demand to better, but also benefited from the supply is low, but in May the profit rebound in glass enterprises have stimulated the ignition of the new glass production line, the late supply rise will make the pressure on glass stocks increased.
Second, real estate investment growth slowed in May. From January to May, investment in real estate development nationwide reached 3.4564 trillion yuan, up 7.0% on a year-on-year basis and down 0.2 percentage points from January to April. Sales, sales in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places tightened policy, sales of real estate has also cooled. Real estate investment and real estate sales growth slowed down for two main reasons: First, the first-tier cities and some second-tier cities restricting the purchase of some of the demand has been suppressed; Second, because the real estate market continued to split, the real estate this round of upsurge did not Third and fourth tier cities spread open. In small cities, the problem of over-supply remains serious. However, on the whole, real estate investment and sales are still in a period of rapid growth. The upward trend of real estate investment is expected to be maintained in the near future.
Third, the cost end of the coal price recovery, to initial success of production capacity. With the decline in production, coal prices are quietly rising. April to June is the traditional annual demand for coal in the off season. Prices of coal usually fall. However, this year, however, it has been an anomaly, with obvious increases in all coal types. In the case of deteriorating demand, the increase of coal mainly benefited from the implementation of the capacity-to-energy policy in various places, which led to the reduction of coal supply in the market. In addition, the market is expected to limit the policy of limiting production to a tighter pace and the production capacity will further decline, confidence. The biggest problem in the coal industry is still the trend of demand reduction, but the reduction measures will be more than demand fell, the price of coal will gradually steady rise.
